To the Red River: The Northward March of North Texas | Part 1 – Migration North
This five-part series delves into the dynamic northern migration of people, businesses, and commercial real estate in North Texas, exploring how this shift is reshaping the region toward the Red River. As DFW’s growth continues its steady northward march, there are key areas like “The Sister Cities” (Anna, Melissa, Celina, Prosper, Aubrey), Grayson county (Sherman, and Denison), that are driving developments and infrastructure projects. From the evolving cityscapes of Legacy and Legacy West to the rise of Fields West and other major contenders, this series provides an in-depth look at the trends, challenges, and opportunities that are redefining North Texas and setting the stage for its next phase of growth.
The population line of North Texas has always been on the move. For decades, it has steadily pushed northward, creeping closer to the Red River and the Oklahoma border at a relentless pace. Like a slow-motion wave, this half-mile-per-year expansion has transformed the landscape and communities in its path, redrawing the boundaries of urban life and raising questions about the future of this growing region.
The Role of the Dallas North Tollway
One of the critical catalysts for this northern expansion has been the Dallas North Tollway (DNT), a major arterial road that has played a significant role in spurring development up north. Originally constructed to connect downtown Dallas with the northern suburbs, the DNT has been systematically extended over the decades, paving the way for urban sprawl and commercial growth far beyond the city’s traditional boundaries.
In the 1990s, the DNT reached Frisco, transforming what was then a relatively small town into a thriving suburban city. The tollway’s extension to U.S. Highway 380 in 2007 marked another key milestone, unlocking vast tracts of land for development and positioning Frisco as one of the fastest-growing cities in the country. With each extension, the DNT has not only improved connectivity but also stimulated economic activity, attracting both residential and commercial developments along its corridor.
Northward Expansion Continues
The latest phase of the DNT’s expansion, pushing further into Prosper and beyond, is expected to continue this trend, opening new areas for development and driving the next wave of growth in North Texas. The extension to FM 428, projected to be completed in the mid-2020s, will further integrate the northern suburbs into the DFW metroplex, reducing commute times and making these areas more attractive for both residents and businesses. This ongoing expansion underscores the tollway’s role as a backbone of North Texas’s growth, facilitating the region’s relentless push toward the Red River.
A New Frontier:
This northward march is driven by a confluence of factors. The Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, the beating heart of North Texas, has become a magnet for businesses and individuals seeking opportunity, affordable living, and a taste of Texas culture. As the metroplex expands, so too does its sphere of influence, pushing development and infrastructure further and further north. With DFW’s population expected to surpass 10 million by 2030, this expansion shows no signs of slowing down. The sheer scale of this growth has led to unprecedented development across Collin, Denton, and Grayson counties.
From Suburbs to Cities
Towns once considered distant suburbs of Dallas or Fort Worth have found themselves at the center of this growth wave. Places like Frisco, McKinney, and Denton have experienced explosive population growth, transforming from quiet communities into bustling hubs with their own unique identities and challenges.
- Frisco: From 2010 to 2020, Frisco’s population nearly doubled, growing from 116,989 to over 200,000. This rapid growth has been accompanied by significant residential development, with thousands of new homes being built annually to accommodate the influx. The city’s Economic Development Corporation has attracted over 80 corporate relocations and expansions in recent years, bolstering job creation and driving further demand for housing and services.
- McKinney: McKinney has also seen substantial growth, with its population increasing from 131,117 in 2010 to over 211,000 by 2023. The city has added numerous residential subdivisions and multifamily housing units to keep pace with demand. McKinney’s historic downtown has become a focal point for retail and cultural activities, attracting visitors and new residents alike.
- Denton: Denton, while maintaining its college-town charm, has expanded its housing market significantly. The city has seen the addition of over 10,000 new homes in the past decade, alongside new retail and commercial spaces. Denton is also becoming a hub for music and arts, further enhancing its appeal as a vibrant, culturally rich community.
Beyond the Metroplex
The growth isn’t confined to the immediate metroplex area. Smaller towns and rural areas further north are also feeling the effects. New housing developments, schools, and businesses are appearing along major highways, gradually bridging the gap between the urban core and the rural landscape. For instance, in Grayson County, home construction has surged by 25% since 2020, and employment in the region has seen a 15% increase in the same period, driven largely by new industrial projects.
Challenges and Opportunities
This northward expansion presents a mix of challenges and opportunities. Infrastructure development, including roads, water supply, and public services, struggles to keep pace with the population growth. Concerns about traffic congestion, environmental impact, and the preservation of open space are increasingly prominent. For example, the Texas Department of Transportation is investing over $1.6 billion in widening U.S. Highway 380 to alleviate traffic between McKinney and Denton, a crucial project for supporting continued growth.
However, the growth also brings economic vitality. New businesses create jobs, property values rise, and communities gain access to a wider range of amenities and services. The median home price in Frisco has skyrocketed to over $500,000, reflecting both the desirability of the area and the pressure on housing markets.
The Red River Beckons
As the population line continues its northward journey, the Red River looms ever closer. The question of how this growth will impact the border region, and how Oklahoma and Texas will navigate the challenges and opportunities together, is a growing topic of discussion. Cross-border collaborations, such as the Texoma Council of Governments, are already being established to manage shared resources and infrastructure needs in anticipation of continued growth.
The Future of North Texas
The northward expansion of North Texas is a story of change, adaptation, and the relentless pursuit of opportunity. It’s a story that will continue to unfold in the years to come, shaping the future of the region and the lives of its residents. As more land is developed and new communities emerge, North Texas will continue to evolve, driven by the forces of population growth, economic opportunity, and a shared vision for the future.
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Steve Triolet
Senior Vice President of Research and Market Forecasting
[email protected]
tel 214 223 4008
