To the Red River: The Northward March of North Texas | Part 2 – The Sister Cities Are Growing Up

This five-part series delves into the dynamic northern migration of people, businesses, and commercial real estate in North Texas, exploring how this shift is reshaping the region toward the Red River. As DFW’s growth continues its steady northward march, there are key areas like “The Sister Cities” (Anna, Melissa, Celina, Prosper, Aubrey), Grayson county (Sherman, and Denison), that are driving developments and infrastructure projects. From the evolving cityscapes of Legacy and Legacy West to the rise of Fields West and other major contenders, this series provides an in-depth look at the trends, challenges, and opportunities that are redefining North Texas and setting the stage for its next phase of growth.

The “Sister Cities”: A Boom in Residential Growth:

Amidst the wave of economic development, another phenomenon is shaping the landscape of North Texas: the explosive residential growth of the “Sister Cities.” These communities – Celina, Melissa, Anna, Aubrey, and Prosper – have earned their nickname due to their charming, feminine-sounding names. However, there’s nothing delicate about the pace of their expansion.

Situated along the northward growth corridor, these towns have become magnets for families and individuals seeking a suburban lifestyle within commuting distance of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. New housing developments are sprouting up at an astonishing rate, transforming former farmland into sprawling neighborhoods.

Celina: The fastest-growing city among the Sister Cities, Celina has seen its population surge from around 6,000 in 2010 to over 30,000 by 2023. The city has added more than 10,000 new homes in the past decade, with several master-planned communities like Light Farms and Mustang Lakes leading the charge. Celina’s population is expected to exceed 100,000 by 2030, driven by continued residential and commercial development.

Melissa: Melissa’s population has grown from 4,695 in 2010 to nearly 15,000 in 2023, with the construction of thousands of new residential units and supporting commercial infrastructure. The Melissa Independent School District is one of the fastest-growing in Texas, reflecting the influx of young families.

Anna: Anna’s residential market has expanded significantly, with over 8,000 new homes built in the past decade, increasing the city’s population to over 17,000. Anna is investing in new parks, schools, and public facilities to keep pace with its rapid growth.

Aubrey: Known for its horse farms and rural charm, Aubrey has seen substantial residential growth, adding thousands of new homes and doubling its population to around 8,000. Aubrey’s proximity to the Dallas North Tollway extension is expected to further accelerate its growth, attracting new residents and businesses.

Prosper: Prosper’s population has grown from 9,423 in 2010 to over 31,000 in 2023. The town has seen significant residential and commercial development, including new schools and retail centers. Prosper’s Windsong Ranch, a 2,030-acre master-planned community, is one of the largest developments in the region, featuring over 3,500 homes, a Crystal Lagoon, and extensive green spaces.

A New Suburban Landscape

The Sister Cities are redefining the suburban landscape of North Texas. Master-planned communities, offering a mix of housing styles, recreational amenities, and retail centers, are becoming the norm. Schools, parks, and other public services are scrambling to keep up with the influx of new residents. For example, Celina Independent School District has grown from a single school to a district with multiple campuses, serving thousands of students, and additional schools are planned to accommodate future growth.

Challenges and Growing Pains

While the residential growth brings economic benefits, it also presents challenges. Traffic congestion, strain on infrastructure, and concerns about preserving the unique character of each town are all issues that the Sister Cities are grappling with. Finding a balance between growth and sustainability is a top priority for local leaders and residents alike. The North Central Texas Council of Governments has launched several initiatives aimed at addressing regional transportation and infrastructure needs, recognizing the critical role these growing towns play in the broader North Texas economy.

A New Generation of Suburbanites

The Sister Cities are attracting a new generation of suburbanites who value community, convenience, and a connection to nature. Many are young families drawn to the area’s excellent schools and family-friendly atmosphere. Others are retirees seeking a peaceful retreat from the hustle and bustle of city life. The diverse mix of residents is contributing to the vibrant and dynamic character of these growing communities.

The Future of the “Sister Cities”

The Sister Cities are leading the charge in North Texas’ residential growth surge. They aren’t simply experiencing growth; they are actively attracting it, serving as a magnet for new residents and businesses alike. As more individuals are drawn to these appealing communities, development is set to quicken. The key challenge for these cities will be to balance this growth with the preservation of their unique character and the maintenance of a high quality of life for residents. The Sister Cities are not just reacting to growth but proactively planning for it, ensuring that infrastructure and amenities keep pace with the expanding population. Given their strategic location, robust community connections, and ongoing infrastructure investments, the Sister Cities are well-positioned to remain central to North Texas’ expansion, particularly in providing a vital component of the white-collar workforce for the northern portion of the Dallas-Fort Worth region.

The swift increase in population within these cities has led to a notable rise in retail development, embodying the principle that “retail follows rooftops.” Presently, the Sister Cities have over 6.2 million square feet of existing retail space, with an additional half a million square feet under construction to meet growing demand. Furthermore, 1.1 million square feet of retail space is in the proposed or planning stages. Despite this robust pipeline, the construction of new retail space struggles to keep pace with demand, resulting in a low total vacancy rate of just 1.6% across the area. The current boom is not just a fleeting trend; the Sister Cities are laying the groundwork for sustained growth and prosperity for years to come. They are clearly on an upward trajectory and an integral part of northern migration, offering a compelling alternative to the urban core. The Sister Cities are not only participating in the northern migration, they are becoming one of the driving forces behind it.

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Steve Triolet
Senior Vice President of Research and Market Forecasting
[email protected]
tel 214 223 4008